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HomeDairyCheese rebounds in November, however total U.S. dairy export quantity declines

Cheese rebounds in November, however total U.S. dairy export quantity declines

Blended outcomes mark one other difficult month.

U.S. cheese suppliers had their finest November ever, delivery 38,610 MT—a 4% enhance over the earlier 12 months. Nonetheless, the cheese class’s enchancment—plus ongoing progress in high-protein whey exports (WPC80+)—have been inadequate to offset declines in nearly all different product classes.

12 months-over-year (YOY) U.S. dairy exports fell 8.1% in milk solids equal (MSE) phrases in November and have been down 7.4% 12 months to this point (YTD). At the same time as U.S. exports of high-value merchandise like cheese and whey proteins grew, decrease commodity costs pushed U.S. dairy export worth down 21% to $631 million in November, placing total worth down 16% YTD (to $7.481 billion) with one month to go. Successfully, even because the declines are moderating and efficiency is bettering, U.S. dairy exports are nonetheless trailing the highs of 2022 each on a quantity and worth foundation.

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For extra detailed data, in addition to interactive charts and knowledge, go to USDEC’s Knowledge Hub

With tepid international financial progress and inflationary forces nonetheless holding sway in key markets, a broad and sustained demand rebound stays elusive.

World cheese demand, nonetheless, is displaying some inexperienced shoots. As we wrote in our Worldwide Demand Evaluation, international cheese commerce (all suppliers) appeared to show a nook in October, leaping 12% vs. the earlier 12 months. That modest enchancment in demand mixed with aggressive costs boosted U.S. cheese exporters in November. U.S. shipments to Mexico soared 42% (+4,370 MT) for the month and have already exceeded the annual report with a full month of information to go. U.S. exports to Central America grew 16% (+565 MT) whereas quantity to the Caribbean rose 14% (+276 MT). Shipments to China grew almost five-fold (+1,290 MT). (For extra particulars on cheese, see beneath.)

Equally, WPC80+ exports jumped 37% (+1,960 MT) as international demand there too appears to be bettering. It was a down month for Japan, the No. 1 U.S. market, however shipments to China greater than doubled (+920 MT), quantity to Brazil almost tripled (+756 MT) and India got here out of nowhere, shopping for 761 MT (up from solely 47 MT in November 2022). YTD U.S. WPC80+ exports grew 18% (+10,805 MT) and, as soon as December numbers come out, will most definitely prime 70,000 MT in a 12 months for the primary time.

Sadly, that’s the place a lot of the constructive story ends. Skim milk powder/nonfat dry milk (SMP/NFDM) exports slipped 5% (-3.333 MT). Shipments to Mexico declined 5% (-1,988 MT) in November, extenuating the current downturn as gross sales have fallen 9% (-9,240 MT) over previous three months. U.S. quantity in November was a wholesome 34,576 MT, however U.S. suppliers proceed to seek out it difficult to duplicate Mexico’s elevated SMP/NFDM urge for food within the later a part of 2022.

And in what has change into a well-recognized chorus, China continues to undercut U.S. low protein whey (0404.10) export volumes. Whole U.S. 0404.10 exports fell 14% (-6,892 MT) in November in comparison with the prior 12 months with declining U.S. whey shipments to China (not together with WPC80+) the first perpetrator (-25%, -7,114 MT).

Gratefully, we’re seeing constructive indicators from Southeast Asia for the primary time in over a 12 months as each SMP/NFDM shipments and low-protein whey gross sales grew—doubtlessly signaling the market has discovered a flooring. The area’s progress will not be significantly sturdy but, however stabilization is welcome information, nonetheless.

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Cheese exports impress in November

Sturdy cheese shipments in November helped to brighten up an in any other case principally dreary month of U.S. export knowledge. YOY cheese exports rose 4% in November to 38,610 MT. Not solely was this the biggest quantity since March of this 12 months, nevertheless it additionally represented a report massive quantity of cheese exports for the month.

Seemingly insatiable demand from Mexico underpinned the rise in November and, extra broadly, has performed a key position in supporting U.S. cheese exports in current months. U.S. suppliers shipped 14,715 MT of cheese to Mexico in November, the biggest quantity ever moved in any month. With only one month of information excellent in 2023, YTD cheese exports to Mexico are up 21% (+25,071 MT) in comparison with the identical interval in 2022.

Constructing on the pattern seen in earlier months, the majority of the rise in cheese exports to Mexico might be traced again to shredded cheese. November exports of shredded cheese to Mexico have been 4 instances higher than in the identical month final 12 months (+4,808 MT). The colourful Mexican economic system has been a key story of 2023, and the rise in shredded cheese exports is presumably a testomony to elevated demand for shredded mozzarella by foodservice and hospitality channels.

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Mexico will not be the one area that noticed cheese exports rise in November, nonetheless. U.S. cheese exports to China in November have been nearly 3.5 instances higher than in the identical month final 12 months (+1,257 MT) with shredded cheese once more accounting for a lot of the achieve. Cheese exports to Canada have been up by 263 MT whereas Central America and the Caribbean added 15% (+841 MT)

The rise in shredded cheese exports continues to seize headlines, however one other key class additionally noticed progress. Recent cheese exports have been up 10% (+791 MT), suggesting that U.S. cream cheese and contemporary mozzarella are additionally garnering favor with consumers overseas. Recent cheese progress was most outstanding within the Western Hemisphere, with Central America and the Caribbean seeing the biggest absolute achieve (+584 MT) whereas Canada, Mexico and South America contributed extra reasonably to the full.

Although the development in cheese exports is welcome information, shipments are nonetheless digging themselves out of an enormous gap with year-to-date exports down 4% throughout the first 11 months of the 12 months. However as decrease home cheese costs render U.S. product extra aggressive relative to different international suppliers, there must be some sustained impulsion behind exports … assuming demand can stay not less than at present ranges.

Different related knowledge factors from October’s commerce knowledge:

  • U.S. lactose exports fell 7% (-2,848 MT) in November. It’s been an up-and-down 12 months for lactose after an incredible first quarter that noticed U.S. suppliers elevate quantity 27% (+24,585 MT). From April by November, nonetheless, YOY U.S. lactose shipments fell 1% (-2,736 MT). Heavy buying from New Zealand, Southeast Asia and Japan evaporated because the 12 months went on, fortuitously offset by ongoing quantity progress to China (YTD +24%. +24,138), Mexico (YTD +18%, +5,431 MT), India (YTD +141%, +5,450 MT) and Brazil (YTD +67%, +3,835 MT).
  • U.S. fluid milk and cream gross sales have been on one thing of a roll for the previous three months with YOY quantity up 12% (+3.6 million liters). YOY November quantity elevated 13% (+1.3 million liters). Elevated gross sales to Canada (+29% September-November) and Mexico (+20%) have led the rebound. YTD U.S. fluid milk and cream exports have been nonetheless down 8% (-11,422 million liters), however the hole has been shrinking.
  • On a geographic foundation, Mexico continued to be the standout marketplace for U.S. suppliers in 2023 in November. Regardless of the aforementioned decline in SMP/NFDM exports in November, Mexico led all areas in quantity achieve, with November U.S. dairy exports rising 4,434 MT (all main merchandise, not together with fluid). A stunning No. 2 on the November record was India (+2,116 MT), buoyed by WPC80+ and lactose. The Philippines (+1,406 MT) and Thailand (+1,033 MT) got here in at Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

rn extra about international dairy markets:

The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative trade partnerships with processors, buying and selling firms and others to reinforce international demand for U.S. dairy merchandise and elements. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Administration Inc. by the dairy farmer checkoff. Tips on how to republish this put up.  



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